It has been more than a week since I reported on anything going on. Between my disappointment in the way the Rangers were eliminated by a beatable Penguins team and impending graduation from college just under a week away, it got a little busy. I am able to think about the Rangers and the upcoming offseason a little bit today, so here are some thoughts.

The Rangers have all kinds of decisions to make. Most will directly impact the others, so Glen Sather has all kinds of things to think about. Including the minor leagues there are 11 unrestricted free agents (UFA) and 13 restricted free agents (RFA). As evidence of last year, signing RFA’s is just important as signing UFA’s quickly, or you risk losing or overpaying them.

Taking away all of those free agents, the Rangers have cap hit for next season of $32.4 million. With the cap expected to be raised to at least $55 million for next year, the Rangers have about $22.6 million to spend on their free agents. Here’s my take on how that money should be spent:

Jaromir Jagr - I don’t see him going anywhere. He made about $7 million last year, but the Rangers were only taking a $3.5 million hit, the Capitals took the rest. As evidence of the playoffs, he can still be a fairly dominant player in the NHL. He’ll end up in the Czech leagues soon enough, most likely in two years. I say give him $3 million plus incentives for two years. Incentives will carry over into the 2010 cap, which will undoubtedly increase again.

Brendan Shanahan - One year, $1.5 million, reduced role. His special teams and leadership is a great asset to the team. I don’t see him retiring quite yet, or joining another team. Put him on the third or fourth line, bump up a budding star like Ryan Callahan or Nigel Dawes and let them get the ice time they need to succeed.

Martin Straka - I don’t see Straka in a Rangers uniform next season. He lost a step this season, and the only way I see him back is if Jagr says that they are a package deal, which may happen. For now, I don’t expect him back.

Sean Avery - Why would you not resign him? He’s been the missing piece of the Ranger puzzle since he arrived last year. He made around $2.5 million this past season after salary arbitration over the summer. Supposedly, he’s looking for Mike Richards money, four years at $6 million per, which will definitely be turned down by Ranger management. Sign him to three years, $12 million. $4 million seems reasonable for the kind of player he is. It would be awful to have to face him, since I can see the Boston Bruins or Montreal Canadians pushing hard for a player like him.

Michal Roszival - If he hits the open market, his value could climb to $5 or 6 million, which is absurd. Sign him quick to two years, $4 million per. He worked well with Marc Staal and is valuable on the power play, if he shoots the puck.

Steven Valiquette - $800,000 - a small raise from last year, get him locked down. He’s a UFA, and is happy backing up Henrik Lundqvist.

Nigel Dawes - Two years, $1 million. It’s a nice pay increase, gives him a year to gauge what he can do in a full season at the NHL level and then they can lock him up when Shanahan and Jagr are gone.

Fredrik Sjostrom - One year, $600,000. Why not? He was decent and can play on the fourth line or fill in for injuries.

Paul Mara - He was alright, but was making too much for what he contributed. If we can get him back for around $1.5 million, I say do it. Makes Christian Backman the odd man out.
If my math is somewhat correct, that leaves approximately $6.2 million left for the Rangers to spend. They need a physical defender. Brooks Orpik fits the bill there. Two years, $3 million may be a little short of what he will be commanding, but start there. No more than $3.5 should be spent on him though, as he provides little else besides physicality, and is sometimes a defensive liability.

Forget Marian Hossa, who will get somewhere near $7-8 million from some team. It would be great to have him if Jagr wasn’t coming back, but I just don’t see that happening this year.

Other free agents for the Rangers such as David Liffiton, Andrew Hutchenson, Darius Kasparitis, Ivan Baranka, Josh Gratton, Mitch Fritz, Chris Holt, Rick Kozak and Bruce Graham have little chance of being resigned, although Liffiton and Baranka may be roster fillers towards the end of free agency, as they are RFA. The Marek Malik era should also come to an end in New York. Greg Moore, David Levenue, Matt Zaba and P.A. Parenteau will most likely be resigned, and then play in Hartford. Jason Strudwick’s tenure in New York is most likely over as well, although he was a fine seventh defenseman.

This leaves the lines looking a little bit like this:

Avery - Dubinsky - Jagr

Dawes - Gomez - Prucha
Shanahan - Drury - Callahan

Orr - Betts - Sjostrom

Roszival - Staal

Tyutin - Girardi

Orpik - Mara

Lunqvist

Bench - Korpikoski, Backman, Hollweg, Valiquette

Looks somewhat decent to me. Prucha and Backman are prime candidates to be included in trades this off-season, which would throw a whole wrench into what I just wrote up, but Backman makes close to $4 million next season, which is an incredible amount of money for Christian Backman. Prucha would be nice to have back, but only if he’s getting ice time and power play time. That is when he’ll be successful. If Jagr and/or Shanahan leave, we also have a different scenario. Hossa will probably be pursued hard. With the way Sather operates though, this is what I see happening.

Any suggestions? Anything I’m completely wrong about? Any interesting things anyone else can suggest? The off-season is just around the corner, should be an interesting one.