Will the Islanders pass on Tavares?

June 19, 2009   ·   Derek Felix   ·   Jump to comments

The suspense grows by the day. Less than a week from now, we’ll already have our big answer. Will it be the one we think? The Islanders have been on the clock since winning the Draft Lottery Apr.14.

Most experts believe they’ll grab top rated Canadian forward John Tavares with the first overall pick. However, debate has continued with lanky Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman closing the gap. Right behind is emerging Canadian center Matt Duchene, who a few scouts project to become the best player out of this Draft.

Are the Islanders considering passing on the high scoring Tavares, who led Canada to a fifth straight gold medal at the World Junior Championships? Club GM Garth Snow still isn’t tipping his hand.

“Well, when we won the draft lottery (on April 14) I was asked if I knew who we were going to take,” he told TSN yesterday in a Bob McKenzie piece. “I said at the time that I had a pretty good idea but that I wasn’t firmly committed to it until we went through the process of doing our due diligence on all the top guys. Let’s just say the process re-affirmed what I thought back then. We want the same guy now that we wanted back then.”

When pressed further, Snow classically remarked:

“Nice try.”

All three players visited Long Island and were interviewed with Tavares first, then Duchene and finally Hedman.

“They are all outstanding players and outstanding young men,” Snow added. “You couldn’t go wrong with any of them.“

With it not being a consensus that the Isles will take Tavares, this Draft has drawn comparisons to 2003 when the Pens selected goalie Marc-Andre Fleury over Eric Staal, who the Canes took second. Considering that both emerged as top players who led their respective teams to Stanley Cups, there won’t be much second guessing.

In 2002, the Panthers liked defenseman Jay Bouwmeester over Rick Nash, eventually trading down to No.3 while Columbus moved up to take Nash. In the middle, Atlanta wound up with goalie Kari Lehtonen. Considering all the injuries and inconsistencies, you could say that gamble hasn’t panned out.

Newsday Islander blogger Greg Logan chimes in that the team will indeed go for Duchene, whose stock has risen dramatically following a great playoffs leading Brampton to the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) Finals before losing to Windsor. Logan concludes:

Suddenly, Duchene’s comparables became “Steve Yzerman” and “Joe Sakic.” While the critiques of Tavares focus on his one-dimensional play and less than stellar skating ability, Duchene now is portrayed as the “most complete” player in the draft. He has the speed to excel in coach Scott Gordon’s system, as well as the playmaking ability. He figures to be a top penalty killer, and he’s a leader in the locker room.

If the Islanders do feel Duchene is the best prospect, might they consider trading with either Tampa Bay or Colorado? Snow indicated that he doesn’t expect to make such a deal next week in Montreal. Still, one wonders if that’s the thinking, that Duchene could still be had at No.3 behind Tavares and Hedman. So, wouldn’t it make sense to move down? You just know that Toronto with Brian Burke would love to trade up using their No.7 overall pick along with other players/prospects/picks to get Tavares.

Further complicating matters for Snow and the Isles is that most team message boards/blogs have aligned themselves with Tavares, basically making it Tavares Or Bust. Many fans are expected to turn out in support for the 2008-09 WJC MVP at a team Draft Party in Nassau Coliseum. As McKenzie speculates, can you imagine if the club passes on Tavares for Hedman or Duchene? Judging from some of the harsh responses to Logan, it indeed could get ugly.

Especially given recent history when the Isles under former GM Mike Milbury passed on the chance to draft Jason Spezza instead trading the second overall pick along with future Norris winner Zdeno Chara to Ottawa for <gulp> Alexei Yashin. The other part of that deal would be a good trivia question with forward Bill Muckalt also going to the Sens. At least Yashin got the Isles back to the playoffs three consecutive seasons (2002-04). All first round exits including to the Sens in ‘03 and the eventual Cup champion Lightning the following year.

Despite heavy pressure to take one player, Snow won’t let that impact what the organization does going on to say:

“We owe it to our fans and ourselves to draft the player who we think gives us the best chance to win the Stanley Cup one day. That’s the only consideration we have. That’s all that matters. And that’s what we’re going to do. Whichever player we pick, that’s the one we think gives us the best chance to be successful.”

Hopefully for his sake, they’ll get it right.