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What if

July 27, 2009   ·     ·   Jump to comments

It’s the final Monday in July and that means we’re getting closer to September. Yes puckers, the long summer feels like a thing of the past and before you know it, training camp shall commence.

What does it mean for the Islanders aside from the John Tavares Era? Will it be through trial and error for the wunderkind who along with Kyle Okposo and Josh Bailey, comprise much of the club’s future? Will Garth Snow add some help given the room he has to work with or might he add another goalie? Eric Fichaud, Tommy Salo or Tommy Soderstrom. Kidding of course.

He might want to add a forward. Alex Tanguay is still available in a dry market and could be had on the cheap. Would the Isles add a veteran forward to a mix that also includes Trent Hunter, Sean Bergenheim and still unsigned Blake Comeau with the latter getting poor advice? Who knows. Adding Tanguay for say a year or two at three million per couldn’t hurt. If he stayed healthy and performed, the club could always move him.

There really aren’t many great options. Would you really want to take a chance on Maxim Afinogenov, Mike Comrie or Robert Lang? Petr Sykora’s also out there along with one-time Isle turned Cup winner (sounds wrong, doesn’t it?) Miroslav Satan. There’s also a plethora of checking type forwards in Dominic Moore, Manny Malhotra, Jason Williams, Rob Niedermayer, Chris Gratton, Radek Bonk and Blair Betts. Heck. Even the washed up Mike Peca is available.

Would any help a rebuilding team? Sure. They could provide leadership and experience. Bringing in a Betts wouldn’t be bad. A solid checking type who kills penalties and can teach the kids a thing or two about how to be successful. How funny would it be to see Betts in Islander colors out for a shift against Donald Brashear? Who would Ranger fans cheer for? The answer’s easy for this blogger and it’s got zilch to do with allegiance.

While it’s an entertaining concept, let’s get to the crux of this Islander rebuild. Aside from Tavares who will be donning his orange and blue Superman cape once October 3 hits versus Sidney Crosby and the Pengwhinesuins, there’s Okposo who much is expected from following a superb finish. Can he support Tavares along with Josh Bailey, who must improve leaps and bounds to justify his selection a year ago over Nikita Filatov, Colin Wilson and Cody Hodgson.

The Isles still have vets like Doug Weight and Richard Park around who can nurture the kids along. Plus support from blueliners Mark Streit, Andy Sutton, Brendan Witt and Radek Martinek with hopefully Bruno Gervais continuing to excel.

The club just re-signed energizer Nate Thompson, who along with Jeff Tambellini and Frans Nielsen should provide grit. We’re fairly certain second-year coach Scott Gordon would like to see Tambellini improve on last season’s career bests in games (65), goals (7), assists (8) and points (15). More than half came the final couple of months including a couple of two-point games. If the former 2003 Kings’ first rounder can produce more consistently, then at least he’d be worth keeping around in the final season of a two-year deal. He’ll earn 625 K before turning restricted next summer.

Really though, how much can Islander fans expect from a bust in one of the greatest drafts? Peanuts compared to what they’ll be expecting from Tavares, Okposo and Bailey. Honestly, if the club isn’t going to do much more entering camp, they should consider teaming the trio. What better way to find out what they got? Okposo showed some real promise in the second half even catching the eye of Team USA GM Brian Burke. Wouldn’t it be intriguing to see what he could do alongside ultra talented Tavares and pass oriented Bailey? Sign us up.

It’s good that Weight remained loyal. Bailey can certainly learn quite a bit from one of the game’s better playmaking pivots. The 38 year-old ranks fifth all-time among American-born skaters with 732 assists. His 1,007 total points place just outside the top 70 all-time with noteworthy former Team USA ‘mates Pat Lafontaine (1,013) and Brian Leetch (1,028) within reach. In fact, the former Ranger 1990 second round pick became only the eighth American-born player to hit the century mark in a loss to the Coyotes.

In assessing the much younger Bailey who turns 20 a day before the season, his skating and unselfishness are similar. Though he didn’t light it up in Year One, seven goals and 18 assists for 25 points in 68 games on a lowscoring club wasn’t bad. Eleven points came via the power play. If he gets to play with Tavares, the production can only increase. Even more interesting is that he should be quite familiar with the newest Islander as they’ve both been around the Oshawa area.

The great aspect is that all three kids are 21-or-younger giving the Isles a bright outlook. They’ll be much more interesting. One thing we can’t help but wonder is what we alluded to earlier. Will the cashstrapped Wang spend any money to improve the roster? I’d really like to believe the answer is yes.

Of course, it’ll be a much easier sell for Islander supporters which can only be a boost moving forward. Can the prospect of Tavares help him get the new arena needed to survive in Long Island? If the well documented Lighthouse Project can’t be guaranteed, we at least hope the town of Hempstead comes to some agreement with Wang on a new building fans and players can be proud of. Nassau Coliseum’s been around forever and while it’s had its day in the sun, it’s time. If the Pens can get one, why not the Islanders? Let’s hope logic prevails so we don’t have to envision a great franchise relocating to Kansas City.

Escaping the sickening thought even for this Ranger fan who can’t get enough of one of the best sports rivalries, let’s focus on improving the present team. It’d be easy for Snow and Co. to stand pat and let Tavares get baptized under fire. But what about possibly adding a young scorer who could also become part of the solution speeding up the rebuild process? That’s what we’re proposing.

It’s no secret that the Bruins and Phil Kessel remain far apart. This past season, the former Boston 2006 fifth overall selection took a significant step budding into the player many including this blogger envisioned. In 70 contests, he paced the Bruins with 36 goals while achieving career highs in assists (24), points (60), power play goals (8), game-winners (6) and plus/minus (23). On one of the East’s best clubs, the Madison, Wisconsin native also played through a shoulder injury failing to miss any playoff games while netting six goals and five helpers for 11 points- ranking only behind co-leaders Michael Ryder and Marc Savard. Following the playoffs, he had successful shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back for the start of the season.

Kessel, who also turns 22 on Oct.2 meaning he shares a birthday with Bailey- is in a stalemate with the Bruin organization over a new contract. He just finished his entry level deal that paid him $2.2 million-per-season. The breakdown was 850 K with another $1.35 million in bonuses. So, he was a $2.2 M cap hit.

There are two schools of thought. Kessel, who fought back from testicular cancer his rookie year to win the Masterton- dramatically improved going from 19 goals and 37 points his sophomore season to nearly double that output. What could he have finished with had he played the other 12 games. Forty goals and 70 points certainly were attainable.

In 2008-09, eight players hit 40 including a four-way tie for fifth between Buffalo’s Thomas Vanek, Carolina’s Eric Staal, former Red Wing Marian Hossa and Columbus’ Rick Nash. Kessel’s 36 were still good enough to tie Dallas’ Loui Eriksson for 12th making him the youngest player in that group with most ranging between 23-30. Oddly enough, Senator headache Dany Heatley, who’s 28 finished tied for 10th with former Flame Mike Cammalleri with 39 markers. Not bad company.

Further, Kessel’s 66 goals rank first among the 2006 Draft Class just ahead of you guessed it- Jordan Staal (63), who’s set to earn $3.5 million in the first year of a new four-year deal worth $16 million. More interesting is that their point production are similar with Kessel holding the edge 126-119 despite playing 23 fewer games. Here’s a further glimpse at the most productive players from that draft:

1.Nicklas Backstrom, Wsh 164 GP 36 G 121 A 157 Pts

2.Phil Kessel, Bos               222 GP 66 G 60 A 126 Pts

3.Jonathan Toews, Chi         146 GP 58 G 65 A 123 Pts

4.Jordan Staal, Pit                  245 GP 63 G 56 A 119 Pts

5.Peter Mueller, Phx              153 GP 35 G 55 A  90 Pts

6.Milan Lucic, Bos                   149 GP 25 G 44 A  69 Pts

7.Bryan Little, Atl                    127 GP 37 G 30 A 67 Pts

Notes: Picks 2-5 comprise the top 4 with Backstrom (4th overall) taken one slot ahead of Kessel. Toews was taken third and along with Backstrom have one year remaining on entry level deals. Each are in line for significant raises. Especially the Washington center who flies under the radar in Alex Ovechkin’s shadow. In case anyone’s wondering, he makes $2.4 million while Toews earns $2.8 this season.

Also noteworthy is Kessel’s teammate Lucic ranks sixth and the only player not to be grabbed in Round One. That translates to a bargain at 850 K for one more year before GM Peter Chiarelli will need to get creative. Anybody who’s paid attention to the B’s knows how up against the cap they are. Thanks to the Derek Morris signing (1-yr, $3.3 M) following Aaron Ward’s exit, Boston has little wiggle room to afford Kessel, whose commanding around $4.5 million. No question he’s trying to cash in.

And why not? Travis Zajac just re-signed with the Devils for four years, $15.55 million. That averages out to a $3.88 cap hit. Not bad for a player who figures to get better centering the top line flanked by Zach Parise and Jamie Langenbrunner. Zajac’s two years older than Kessel and has totaled 138 points (51-87-138) in 244 games. Before his similar bustout 2008-09, he was coming off a 34-point season- eight less than his rookie year. Despite being demoted to the fourth line, he rebounded nearly doubling his total. It’s hard to compare them because they’re different players. One’s a reliable two-way pivot also being asked to produce while the other’s a bonafide sniper who still needs to improve in other aspects.

The dilemma for Boston is that aside from not agreeing with Kessel’s demands, they’re not even close to making room. Something we assumed when they dealt Ward back to Carolina and then bought out Patrick Eaves. That’s why the Morris move was so puzzling. Sure. They needed a replacement but that was a bit steep for a regressing player. At least it’s only a year.

There’s no doubt that Chiarelli will have to make a trade if he wants his best finisher to stay put. Likely candidates are Chuck Kobasew ($2.5 M) and Patrice Bergeron ($4.75 M). One would be ideal for one of the locals if he’s over his concussion history. The other is a serviceable depth scoring winger for someone.

Bergeron, 24, has two years left before turning unrestricted. He once was a very capable scoring center averaging better than 70 points his first two seasons. After playing in just 10 games in 2007-08, he returned and was somewhat productive amassing eight goals and 31 assists for 39 points over 64 contests, adding five helpers in the postseason. Most alarming is the lack of goal production. He was always a good playmaker netting better than 40 helpers his first two campaigns. But his goals have dramatically dropped from 31 to 22 to only 8 in 2008-09. Will that ever return? Is it a matter of confidence or has he become gunshy? That’s the risk for any suitor.

Complicating matters, the Bruins re-signed center David Krejci rewarding him with a three-year $11.25 million contract. It averages out to a $3.75 cap hit. Not bad for a player taken late in the second round three spots behind current Ranger Group II Brandon Dubinsky. Relevant is the 23 year-old Czech has outproduced Dubinsky 100-81 in 26 less games with the notable difference his 72 assists- 18 better.

With top center Marc Savard ($5 M) in his walk year, it’s obvious why Chiarelli opted to concentrate on Krejci before Kessel. It’s much harder to find productive centers than scorers and the B’s still have Ryder, Blake Wheeler along with other offensive weapons if they can’t re-sign Kessel. Marco Sturm also returns after missing most of last season. You can see why it might make sense to deal the right wing. Something they nearly did at the Draft before being turned down by Burke for Tomas Kaberle and the Leafs’ No.1 pick. Burke wasn’t willing to trade the pick instead tabbing Nazem Kadri.

With the Kessel situation nowhere near being resolved, the question is would a team who could use a player of his caliber be willing to extend an offersheet? In a Sunday column, Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski examines the decline of offersheets citing Edmonton’s recent Dustin Penner failure along with team’s willingness to match as in the cases of Vanek, Ryan Kesler, David Backes and Steve Bernier. Not only have the last four matched but GMs have vowed revenge with last summer, St. Louis forcing Vancouver to match one year, $2.5 million on Bernier after matching a similar offersheet on Backes. Considering that Backes posted a career best 31 goals, 54 points and 165 penalty minutes while Bernier netted 15 goals and a career high 32 points, who won that one?

Offersheets have indeed become a dangerous poker game with high stakes. However, would the Islanders have any interest in Kessel? Here’s how it works:

Amount                                Compensation

$863,156 or less               None

$863,156 – 1,307,812     3rd Rd pick

$1,307,812 – 2,615,625  2nd Rd pick

$2,615,625 – 3,923,437  1st & 3rd

$3,923,437 – 5,231,249  1, 2 & 3

$5,231,249 – 6,539,062  Two 1′s, one 2 & one 3

$6,539,062 or more         Four 1′s

We highlighted the likely cost.  Just think. If he took a similar deal to Zajac’s, it would just be a first and a third. Fair value in our estimation for a future 40-50 goal finisher. In this league, those kind of goalscorers don’t come cheap. And what’s more? Given the Islander situation, it  might be worth pursuing. However, they’d sacrifice the first three rounds of next year’s draft. A no no if you’re in full rebuild mode.

So, would you do it if you were Snow? We’re talking about adding a good player to a young core. Suddenly, the Islanders could have two capable scoring lines and be that much closer to competing. Is it worth the price? I’ll admit to not being a big proponent of this scenario. But in the Isles’ case, it sure is tempting to team Kessel with Tavares while shifting Okposo and Bailey to another line.

Two scoring lines would relieve pressure on the supporting cast probably making them more effective because they wouldn’t have to face top D or potential checking units. Bergenheim and Hunter are solid support guys who wouldn’t need to overachieve.  Suddenly, a pretty weak offensive club would have a completely different look. It might even be worth the risk generating more excitement on the Island.

Could the B’s really match? They’d be in full scramble mode. They’re already in the red and we still don’t know if the cap is going down. The good news for teams that are over is they have until the end of training camp. Here’s an excerpt courtesy NHLSCAP.com:

In addition, from July 1 to the last day of training camp, teams may exceed the Upper Limit by no more than 10%.  For 2008-09, the absolute highest teams can go during the offseason (from July 1 to the end of training camp) is $62.37 million. Players who finished the prior season on LTIR are excluded for the purpose of offseason calculations.

According to cap figures via Hockey Buzz, the Bruins are at $58.08 M. Only the Senators and Blackhawks have committed more. As far as the locals, they have the Rangers at $53.2, the Sabres at 50.2, the Devils at 49.4 and the Islanders dead last at 36.8. The totals on nhlnumbers are a little different. Either way, it gives fans a good idea where their respective teams are.

The Islanders are in a unique situation because nobody expects much. At the very least, they should improve. If they took the gamble on Kessel, it would change the dynamic. No. Playoffs still would be unlikely. Especially playing in the Atlantic. But they’d be closer. If they were able to add a couple of more pieces and get respectable goaltending from Martin Biron/Dwayne Roloson until Rick DiPietro proves healthy, suddenly you’re talking about something else. Best case would be DP back by January with Biron performing well enough to move which is likely anyway. Figure they’d also be able to unload vets like Witt, Sutton, Weight and Park to further along the retooling. Maybe they even retrieve some picks.

Of course, this is all hypothetical and probably unlikely. It’s merely a radical concept from someone thinking outside the box. Something a GM must do if they’re to build a winner. Maybe the Islanders prefer to wait it out with Tavares and continue stockpiling high draft picks a la Pittsburgh.

Either way, I’d rather be in their position than the Rangers.

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  1. What if | The Battle of New York :: A Tri-State Area Hockey Blog on July 27th, 2009 10:39 am

    [...] Read the rest here:  What if | The Battle of New York :: A Tri-State Area Hockey Blog [...]

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