NHL thoughts and predictions

September 30, 2009   ·   Hasan   ·   Jump to comments

So it’s that time of year again, the NHL season officially gets underway tomorrow with a handful of games.  Seems like just yesterday that I was coming home from watching Luis Castillo botch a game in Yankee Stadium when I heard on the train that the Penguins beat Detroit in Game 7 of the Finals, in what was a second consecutive Finals appearance for both teams.  Do I hear three-peat?  While the NHL would like that I’m not sure I really see either team getting back there again.  As many teams – the Red Wings and Devils included – have found out, when you go to the Finals two years in a row the third year can be pretty tough, no matter how talented or young your roster is. 

Yet it seems almost impossible to actually predict the standings, with each team having its flaws and almost all the teams being close, to a degree.  I mean after all, there were several teams still in the playoff race during the final days of last year’s regular season that came up short like Buffalo, Florida, Nashville, Minnesota and Edmonton.  I’ll give it my best shot though, starting with most of our readers’ favorite division, the Atlantic:

1. (3) Philadelphia - Ever since I’ve become a hockey fan in the mid 90′s, the Flyers have been the little girl with the curl, always look great on paper but manage to come up just short time and again.  Historically the Flyers’ goaltending and defense have been its fatal flaws but Philly went a long way toward fixing the latter with the (costly) addition of Chris Pronger in the offseason.  Will bargain-basement shopping for goaltenders Ray Emery and Brian Boucher be enough to fix the former?  Emery’s problem hasn’t been talent as much as it has been temperment, but with a talented team in front of him it’ll be enough in the regular season at least.  

2. (4) Pittsburgh – With their dynamic duo of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, the big surprise wasn’t that the Pens broke through to win the Stanley Cup last year but rather that this talented team was on the verge of missing the playoffs outright in mid-February.  Yet, after the firing of Michel Therrien and the additions of Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin at the deadline - among others, the Penguins took off and never stalled after that.  Despite trailing twice by two games in the playoffs, they would not be denied the franchise’s first Stanley Cup since 1992.  Even for a relatively young team though, all that extra hockey eventually catches up to you.  I pick them behind the Flyers only because I don’t expect them to go pedal to the metal all season like they had to from February on last year.

3. (5) New Jersey – Although most prognosticators don’t usually agree on much, I think one thing everyone can agree on is that the Atlantic Division is hockey’s toughest, as evidenced by having four playoff teams every year since the lockout.  Which makes last season’s division title all the more remarkable for the Devils, given the injury that forced Martin Brodeur to miss 50 games.  Yet, things went array in the playoffs and change was inevitable, especially after coach Brent Sutter weaseled his way to brother Darryl’s team in Calgary.  Although vets such as John Madden and Brian Gionta waved bye-bye, an old face returned in Jacques Lemaire to take over as head coach.  It’ll take me a while to believe that the new offensive philosophy of Lemaire is anything more than the usual talk of a Devils coach before the first two-game losing streak.  This is still a very good team however, capable of going much farther than the cynics say.

4. (7) Rangers – I erroneously predicted them to miss the playoffs this year, I won’t make that choice this year – though it’s hard to say what to expect with half a new roster and an entirely fresh up-tempo philosophy under coach John Tortorella.  Will Marian Gaborik‘s body respond to the 20-25 minutes of icetime his coach will expect of him every night?  Even if the answer is no, they still have a fine goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist and a defense that’ll probably be better than people expect in spite of the new system.  Still, they’ve been hanging on the periphery of missing the playoffs every year since the lockout and it’s hard to see that changing this year, especially with three teams better than them in the same division.

5. (15) Islanders – Okay, they have the next great hope in John Tavares, an up-and-comer in Kyle Okposo, a terrific defenseman in Mark Streit, and veteran goaltending with both Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron.  Unfortunately for Isles coach Scott Gordon, the good news pretty much ends there.  They’re starting to remind me of the old Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the AL East, always stuck in purgatory in a brutal division with prospects that by and large never seem to pan out.  While the Rays finally saw the light last season, no such surprise is in the cards for the star-crossed Isles this year.  Finishing last isn’t even the biggest worry for their fans, but rather where will the team even be in five years?

In contrast to the Atlantic, the Northeast was a one-team show last year as Boston emerged from eighth place two years ago to storm to the top seed last year, eventually falling to Carolina in a hard-fought second round series.  It’s hard to see that changing this year, though it’ll be interesting to see how the changes in Montreal, Toronto and Ottawa will pan out.

1. (1) Boston – Even with Phil Kessel gone, the Bruins get Patrice Bergeron back after concussions threatened his career, not to mention Marco Sturm who missed most of last season due to injury himself.  With Vezina winner Tim Thomas, offensive talent up the wazoo, a stacked defense led by Norris Trophy winner Zdeno Chara and Dennis Wideman and grit personified in Milan Lucic, the Bruins seemingly have it all.  In a suspect division, it’s hard to pick against them.

2. (8) Buffalo – If the Rangers seemingly make the playoffs by the skin of their teeth every year, the Sabres have missed them by that much the last two seasons.  Buffalo had no major subtractions or additions to the team, much to the consternation of a fellow blogger and will probably be sweating it out again down the stretch this year.  That said, Ryan Miller‘s the best goaltender in the division other than Thomas and that might be enough to squeak in the tournament this time if Miller stays healthy this year (his late-season injury last year hurt the Sabres big-time).

3. (9) Toronto – Maybe a little high, but they did add a lot more grit and talent to the defense with the UFA signings of Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin, who could thrive outside of the shadow of Pronger and Scott Niedermayer in Anaheim.  While the expensive acquisition of Kessel via trade helps the offense, they still lack playmakers up front, and the goaltending’s still a question mark even with the importing of overseas standout Jonas Gustavsson to compete with Vesa Toskala for the starting job. Say what you will about GM Brian Burke and I’m no fan myself, but his teams compete.

4. (11) Montreal – Hard to believe that just two years ago the Canadiens were the best team in the East and Carey Price was a future star.  However, after an embarassing season on and off-ice last year that saw them barely squeak into the playoffs as an eighth seed only to be swept by the rival Bruins, GM Bob Gainey threw out everything but the kitchen sink to change the culture in Montreal.  What did they get left with?  A nice first line with Michael Cammalleri at left wing on a line with reunited partners Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta.  Andrei Markov‘s still there to provide a booming shot from the point, with Jaroslav Spacek and Hal Gill also brought in to help the D, which saw Komisarek go to rival Toronto.  Beyond that however, there isn’t much for new coach Jacques Martin to work with, and Price’s mental fragility is a severe question mark after being blitzed down the stretch and in the playoffs.

5. (14) Ottawa – Okay they finally rid themselves of Dany Heatley, who clearly was an unhappy camper under new coach Cory Clouston but this team’s a shadow of what it was a few years ago.  Only UFA signing Alexei Kovalev, mercurial Jason Spezza and aging captain Daniel Alfredsson provide any real threat offensively, and it doesn’t get much better on defense where ex-Wild washout Fillip Kuba is the best blueliner around.  In goal?  Well there’s the talented but injury-prone Pascal Leclaire and young Brian Elliott who did a decent job toward the end of last season, but the Sens need this duo to stand on their head for the team to have a chance.

While the Southeast has often been referred to as the Southleast, the last two seasons the quality of the division has ticked upward with Carolina reaching the conference finals last year and an up-and-coming Capitals team taking the eventual Stanley Cup champs to seven games.  Everyone else is still a question mark though.

1. (2) Washington – After six competitive games with the Penguins in an Eastern Conference Final that was Gary Bettman‘s dream series, the Caps crash-landed in Game 7 at home.  Still, with young talent such as Alexander Ovechkin, Niclas Backstrom, Alexander Semin and Mike Green the Caps should be contenders for years to come.  Especially if 20-year old Simeyon Varlamov is the real deal in goal.  Granted, the Caps are starting the season with Jose Theodore in net strangely enough but anyone who watched the playoffs (or paid the slighest bit of attention to Theodore’s career) knows that won’t last long.  Will they have the breakthrough rival Crosby and the Pens enjoyed last year?

2. (6) Carolina – Another team that improved dramatically last season when changing coaches in midstream but strangely it was Paul Maurice, who was fired by Carolina a few years back that got them back on the right track, making the playoffs and springing two straight seven-game upsets of the Devils and Bruins.  It’s hard to see them doing better this year with much the same team and players like Rod Brind’amour, Ray Whitney and Erik Cole only getting older.  There’s still plenty of talent, and Cam Ward in net, which should be more than enough to make the playoffs (though history proves that not to be the case since the Canes usually have a hard time for a couple years after making a good playoff run) - but they won’t sneak up on anyone this time around.

3. (10) Tampa Bay – For a couple years now, they’ve been a team that’s less than the sum of its parts.  With players like Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St.Louis and Ryan Malone they should have been better than the trainwreck they were much of last season, but a leaky defense and goaltender Mike Smith‘s concussion derailed them.  Not to mention the questionable decision to bring Barry Melrose out of the booth to coach behind a bench for the first time in over a decade.  It didn’t take a quarter of the season for them to admit a mistake and fire Melrose.  While the defense has improved with the addition of Mattias Ohlund and drafting of Victor Hedman, and the second line led by last year’s top pick Steven Stamkos should add more than it did last year I’m going by the once bitten, twice shy rule in not picking Tampa for the playoffs.

4. (12) Florida – If Isles fans have it rough, Panther fans aren’t much behind them these days.  At least the Isles have made the playoffs since the lockout, while Florida hasn’t seen postseason action since 2000 when they were swept by the Devils in the first round.  While franchise defenseman Jay Bouwmeester leaving wasn’t a shock, the fact remains they’ve lost Roberto Luongo, Olli Jokinen and Bouwmeester in recent years and have nothing to show for it other than injury-prone Jordan Leopold, who was the Panthers’ consolation prize for trading Bouwmeester’s rights to Calgary.  There is young talent on the top two lines and some decent role players on defense to go along with goaltenders Tomas Vokoun and Scott Clemmensen, a fine tandem – though last season’s surprise hero for the Devils is still probably a downgrade from Craig Anderson, who left for the Avalanche.  Still it’s hard to see them contending, even in a Southeast division where you can move up a couple spots.

5. (13) Atlanta – I can see them being a few spots higher than this, they’ve improved on defense with the addition of Pavel Kubina to go along with continued development from last year’s #4 pick Zach Bogosian, but still they have more power play QB’s than defenders on the blueline.  Illya Kovalchuk finally has a couple of running mates on offense with UFA addition Nik Antropov and last season’s surprise 31-goal scorer Bryan Little.  And the Thrashers improved in the second half of the season under new coach John Anderson.  Notice what’s missing from this picture?  Goaltending – with injury-prone Kari Lehtonen seemingly not living up to the hype (and as usual, on the shelf to start the season) and vet Johan Hedberg shaky on a good day, the team will start the season with Ondrej Pavelec – he of the 3.61 GAA and .880 save percentage in twelve games last year.  If any of these goalies ever step up, the Thrashers could surprise but until then, they’re still Atlanta.

As far as the West goes, not as many thoughts there since I don’t watch them as much quite honestly (which also makes it harder to get a read on what’s going on) but unlike last year I will post predictions at least:

1. (3) Detroit – They’ll finish first on muscle memory, and none of the other teams are good enough to dethrone them yet.

2. (4) Chicago – If not for Hossa being out for two months and the downgrade in goal from Khabibulin to Huet I’d pick them to topple the Wings, but it has been a star-crossed offseason for the Hawks.

3. (6) St. Louis – Will their young talent take a step forward this year, or will they come crashing to earth after their unexpected run to the playoffs last year?  My gut says either the Blues or Jackets take a tumble backward, but not both.

4. (9) Nashville – Barry Trotz always keeps them competitive and they have defense, two decent goalies and scoring lines but no real go-to star that can take the pressure off everyone else.

5. (11) Columbus - If Steve Mason falls off even a little from his spectacular year last year, the Jackets will need players like Derrick Brassard, Jakub Voracek and Nikita Filatov on offense to step up and finally help Rick Nash shoulder the load offensively.

1. (2) Vancouver – In a tough dogfight with Calgary, I’ll pick the better goaltender and team to nose it out in the end.

2. (5) Calgary – Should be improved on D with Bouwmeester and Kiprusoff may finally tick back upward under new coach Brent Sutter, but there still remain too many questions up front.

3. (8) Edmonton – Could Pat Quinn‘s crew do what Columbus and St.Louis did last season by earning a surprise playoff berth?  Perhaps, especially with Khabibulin’s arrival and a slowly improving offense.

4. (13) Minnesota – Now we’ll find out this year whether Jacques Lemaire‘s system hurt the Wild or was the only thing keeping them afloat.  My money’s on the latter.

5. (15) Colorado – Yeech…with every last vestige of the glory years gone other than aging Adam Foote, they’re even worse than the Coyotes although at least they don’t have the off-ice problems.

1. (1) San Jose – Still the most talented team in the West, especially with the addition of Heatley, but how much will it mean come playoff time?

2. (7) Anaheim – Losing Pronger and Beauchemin hurts, while adding Whitney and Wisniewski only partially makes up for that gaping hole in the Ducks - who have a terrific first line for the next decade but Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer are all probably gearing up for a last roundup with a muddled goaltending situation.

3. (10) Dallas – Will they rebound now that they’re healthy?  Hard to say considering they also made a coaching change from the respected Dave Tippett to firey Marc Crawford, but Marty Turco has to pick it up behind a rebuilding defense.

4. (12) Los Angeles – Young talent both up front and defensively but it remains to be seen whether Jon Quick and Erik Ersberg can be stable enough in goal for a team that may still be a year away from doing damage.

5. (14) Phoenix – On-ice they’re still a couple years away (and a handful of players) but at least hiring Tippett was a step in the right direction.

Playoffs First Round:

• Boston over Buffalo in 5
• Washington over Rangers in 6
• Philadelphia over Carolina in 6
• New Jersey over Pittsburgh in 6
• San Jose over Edmonton in 5
• Vancouver over Anaheim in 7
• St. Louis over Detroit in 6
• Calgary over Chicago in 6

Second Round:

• Boston over New Jersey in 7
• Philadelphia over Washington in 6
• San Jose over St. Louis in 6
• Vancouver over Calgary in 7

Conference Finals:

• Boston over Philadelphia in 5
• Vancouver over San Jose in 5

Stanley Cup Finals:

Boston over Vancouver in 6